Cabinet Fails to Disappoint

The search for justice on post poll violence in Kenya has taken a new twist. The cabinet has finally made its position known that indeed it does not have the guts to let any of its own brought to books.
Yesterday, (July 30, 2009), the president with a lieutenant of cabinet ministers made his stand known regarding the fate of the post election violence perpetrators, dealing a big blow to a large section of the Kenyan population who have called for the Hague option.

The cabinet seem to have been categorical in its view of the situation. The president indeed made it clear to the media and the public at large that a Hague or local tribunal option does not come in the picture.

What then is the way forward for the debate on prosecution of the perpetrators? The cabinet proposals revolve around an old idea whose mention has deafened ears by now. It's all about reforms in the judiciary, police force and related institutions to pave way for an effective court system to try the post poll suspects. The choice for the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission is no stranger to many a watchful Kenyan. Its hurried formation despite hue and cry from a section of the Kenyan society was suggestive enough of a choreographed idea.

Different Story,shared destiny

For a long time now cabinet has not come out with a common front on this issue but yesterday seems to have signaled a turn of events on a compromised position indicating that the Kenyan cabinet is not ready for any directions either from Koffi Annan, Ocampo or any other foreign body or person out to suggest or dictate the modus operandi of the whole justice process.
Indeed as it has been pointed by many people across the divide, the idea of giving government a leeway to decide on the process was indicative of the cow given a choice of a slaughter house. The Waki report contains names of the high and mighty in the political and business scene and as such therefore, interests have to be protected.
The 2012 race reminds us that we need each other as politicians and businessmen, none is indispensable. It is in this spirit of give and take therefore that cabinet has found it wise to rubbish calls for international prosecution and any other instruments of justice that are likely to be detrimental to status quo.
What is left for Ocampo? A pull out from ICC a tenable option?

Reality Bites

The fate of alleged post election violence suspects in Kenya is now very real than never before and every minute of the day reminds suspects of the prospects of spending years arguing out a case in the Hague.
It has never sounded or seemed like this. For sometime now, politicians across the political divide have exchanged bitter words and others even bragged of their courage and ability to handle the possibility of being a visitor of the world court.
Like never before, life of many a politician in Kenya looks dull and confounding. The courage and power to ignore threats seems to be fizzling out by the day. The analogy of the cat hiding behind the lion and threatening to unleash terror on would be enemies only to chicken out when the lion leaves the stage perhaps explains the scenario in Kenya.
It is no wonder therefore that even those who drummed up support for ICC seems to be backing off and instead calling for a Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC). Moreso, others are ready forewarning the public about their names appearing in the envelop and seemingly exonerating themselves way in advance.
The power to read what is inside a closed envelop is Kenya's newest discovery and may be worth recommendation by the tourism board to potential tourists and to scholars, a fertile ground for research.
The international community's intervention led by the EU is a significant move towards the conclusion of the big debate between the envelop and the local tribunal which interestingly is taking the way of the age old argument on the egg and the chicken.
However on a lighter note the prosecutor at ICC has given the country another six months to come up with the necessary mechanisms to handle try the post election perpetrators, a case which helps engage the public discourse for quite a considerable time again.
The interesting thing though is that 2012 is not far and the way of the ballot will soon be nigh. Therefore the fate of many politicians in the next general elections will be dictated to a great extend by the outcome of this case. Perhaps many will lose out and to others a major victory since many will ride on the results of the Waki report.

Finally, the Envelope is Gone

Gone with the wind to the desk of Moreno O'Campo. Indeed it is gone and the rest is O'Campo's.
Yes finally, the former UN Chief and peace negotiator in post poll violence in Kenya Dr. Koffi Annan has ultimately put the case to rest.
He has finally handed over Kenya's Pandora's Box to the International Criminal Court, the land of teeth gnashing and groaning.
A Twist of Fate
This perhaps partially closes the chapter of horse trading, threats, divided loyalty and anguish among many a politician in the Kenyan arena where for the last ten months or so politicians have been engaged in war of words and shifting loyalties as others seemed to have used the envelop to fight their perceived political enemies.
In the public domain also there has been a lot of speculation as to whose name would be in the list. This development seems to have paved way for Kangaroo Courts where politicians of various shades have been handed very tough judgments by members of the public who in one way or the other were forced to come up with tentative measures in place of ICC or a local tribunal.
A Hope for Solace
Recently there have been very interesting moves in the country regarding this envelope. Bare a week ago, a team of ministers headed by the Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo sojourned to O'Campo's office in the Hague to discuss possible options of dealing with the menace of the post poll violence. This was occasioned by the tough and seemingly common stand taken by most members of parliament to reject a local tribunal and hand the envelop to ICC. This move seems not to have sank well with the two leaders of the coalition-PM and President and also Koffi Annan who has called for a local tribunal as well.
Twelve Months More...
Interestingly, the Prosecutor at ICC gave Kenya another grace period of twelve months to come up with a panacea which in the mind of the government included a third option of setting up a UN backed Special Tribunal in a different country.
Today(July 8, 2009), the chief negotiator has thrown the spanner into the works and further complicated the whole issue. Many questions are bound to resurface now and indeed those questions are fundamental: Did the Prosecutor at ICC overlook Annan's ultimatum? Was the ICC obliged to go by Annan's ultimatum? Could this be suggestive then of a futile effort by Koffi Annan to hand over the envelop to a man who has given suspects more leeway?

Credibility Test
It is also worth noting that ICC is facing a great credibility test from African leaders. A few days ago, the African Union (AU) unanimously agreed not to hand over the Sudanese leader Omar Elbashir whom a warrant of arrest had been issued against by the International Court some time last year.
From the Kenyan front, the air is full of suspense more than ever before regarding the envelop. It is in this breath that President Mwai Kibaki has today called an impromptu cabinet meeting to chart the way forward.

No reprieve yet
The president and the Prime Minister had been exonerated by the Waki Report which investigated the post election violence and subsequently prepared the envelop. Against this backdrop, it is imperative to note that the Rome Statute, which created ICC provides for prosecution of not only those directly involved but also those who abated and more importantly those who neglected responsibility of averting the crime, read:

In the case of civilian superiors, a superiors’ inadvertently negligent disregard of information indicating that a crime of their subordinates is impending does not suffice for their responsibility. Therefore, it is their “conscious disregard” of such information (recklessness) that the Rome Statute sets as the lower limit of their responsibility. This means that according to the Rome Statute, a superior can be held responsible on the basis of his negligence for an intentional crime or even for a crime which requires coloured intent (dolus coloratus, such as in case of genocide from the article 6 of the Rome Statute). Article 28 b (i-iii)

Like more than never before, the reality of joining the ranks of other sixteen African leaders and politicians in the ICC list is a reality.
The proverbial Sword of Damocles once again hangs precariously in the Houses of parliament, Cabinet offices and all corridors of power awaiting who to devour come a pronouncement from the Hague.

FARE THEE WELL MJ

Controversy, fame and indeed weird at some quarters. Perhaps we may not find all the best and bad words to describe Michael Jackson. He proved that it was possible despite prevailing circumstances.
'Michael was the King of Pop; Elvis Presley was the King of Rock N Roll', went the crown, though may be debatable, but it serves better.
Finally, the King as he declared bowed out at 50 sending the whole world into a state of awe and confusion and to others a state of sadness. Sometimes even the strongest are moved when some one of MJ's stature passes on. Indeed it was no surprise that Hugo Chavez could not fail to mourn MJ despite his negative view of the North.
Back in Kenya, even those who never knew MJ joined in the fray to mourn and celebrate a man whose view of Africa was bizarre and down trodden. MJ's disks and casettes resurfaced even after it may have been long forgoten.
Fare thee well MJ and greet Presley. Dont mind about your differences, perhaps you even married his daughter.

Air France Crash Pictures

Obama's Score in the Mid East

Obama's maiden tour to Egypt and a well designed address to the Muslim world served to give a rather clean bill of health to his administration and delink it with that of his predecessor.
Indeed the US has had a very bad record not only from the Muslim and Arab world but also other parts of the world which perceive the US as a ruthless aggressor and a verile expansionist.
Triples Origins
A triple orientation spanning from Africa, America and Asia gives him a more legitimate position to argue out his case especially on the two state solution in the Middle East. Given that Obama also has a history cutting across the Christian and Muslim divide, he seems to enjoy a more comfortable reception from his audience in the Middle East unlike his predecessor who was seen as partisan and with very radical views.
Though the Arab world still remains skeptical on any word from the US, Obama's speech seems to have given a new impetus to the region. Perhaps this was welll captured in Obama's speech when he intimated that he went to Egypt to seek new ties and give America a better treat from the East.
Stiff Challenges
Issues such as Student Exchange programmes and fiscal aid for women groups and other democratic institutions are very key towards forging a better and mutual understnding between the US and the Arab world. However, the acid test for Obama administration include the Arab-Israeli conflict, in particular the Palestine and Israel, the perceived double standards by the US on muslims such as the war on terrosism, the conflicts in Afganistan, Iraq and Pakistan.
The planned withdrawal from Iraq and Afganistan and closure of Guantanamo Bay may be some of the yardsticks used by the East to pass verdict on the Obama administration. It goes without mention that the speech fell on deaf ears in some quarters. Perhaps Obama could not please all.

Theatre of the Absurd; Museveni goes wild

The recent developments over the Migingo Island issue perhaps provides another chance to look at the anticipated political union in the East African region.
The five East African countries are preparing to go into a political federation in the year 2015. This means that they will have reconciled all differences for example relating to political power sharing, economic disparities and, maybe social and cultural diversities. Finally, a common currency among the five countries is inevitable.
On May 12, 2009 during an interview with BBC, Ugandan President and an ambitious candidate for the anticipated federation broke ranks with Kenya for the umpteenth time when he made remarks reminiscent of Iddi Amin’s reign in the same country years ago. Perhaps it would be of interest to learn that the former came to power through the barrel of the gun just like the latter.
And a breath of fire…
“The island is in Kenya, the water is in Uganda. But the Wajaluos (a Kenyan tribe) are mad, they want to fish here but this is Uganda. . . ”, said Museveni. By any standard of decorum and diplomacy, these remarks fell far too short of a head of state. Worse still, a neighbor, who counts on you for help. (For history’s sake, Uganda is landlocked).
However, there’s more than it meets the ear in Kaguta Museveni’s remarks. If a country has a difference with the other, reference should be made of the country as a whole and probably the leadership at a corporate level. For Museveni therefore to insinuate that a certain section of Kenyan community is insane based on its response to defend what it considers theirs is suggestive of a more choreographed political stance.
The Ugandan president, who finds a good friend in the Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki made the remarks on the same day the boundaries team set to carry out a survey on the ownership of the island was being commissioned in Nairobi. Two things came out very strongly. One is that the Ugandan president has already passed his verdict regarding the ownership of the island. It is Uganda’s. “One foot into the water and you’re in Uganda,” said Museveni.
Two is that the president does not have any intentions of relinquishing ownership of the island even if the final result vindicates Kenya of any attempts to own another country’s land and indeed the island is Kenyan. Nominated Member of Parliament Rachel Shebesh, while contributing to the Migingo Island debate in parliament called on the president to seek the intervention of the UN Security Council regarding the issue. Based on Museveni’s view, this is Vanity Fair.
However, what makes the debate of much interest is what the Turkana Central MP Ekwe Ethuro raised in the House during debate on the issue. His view is that the problem is not with the Ugandan President but rather with his Kenyan counterpart. The Kenyan president is seen to be hiding so much from the public. Some few weeks ago, former president Moi called on Kibaki to update the country on development regarding the Migingo Island. This was a time when the Kenyan and Ugandan presidents had just met in Kampala to discuss the same issue.
Suspicion, suspicion and suspicion
What stirs more debate now is not the noise from Uganda but rather the silence of Nairobi. There’s so much to be desired from Mwai Kibaki. Perhaps it is the silence of the responsible that kills the soul than the violence of the enemy. He swore to defend the constitution and sovereignty of the state by all measure. However what is coming out from State House leaves the country in suspense and serves to justify acts such as those witnessed in Kibera last month. Museveni seems not to have had any issue with Kenya but rather with a particular community-that of the Kenyan Prime Minister. Would it help to generate a healthy debate to learn that it is only Museveni who acknowledged Kibaki’s controversial re-election in 2007? Would it also not be of interest that the former rebel leader from Uganda does not enjoy a good relationship with the Kenyan Prime Minister? No, would it not elicit more debate and a discourse that the Migingo issue has been reduced into a PNU-ODM affair in Kenya and that the president being the PNU de facto leader does not want to speak out on this because the Migingo issue is a ploy to frustrate the Prime Minister?
It is embarrassing and disheartening that the Prime Minister has been raising the matter but the President, whom he shares power with, exudes a deafening silence.
These school of thought is likely to be contested by many but as Adolf Hitler of the infamous Holocaust put it , ‘In the big lie there’s always a sense of credibility,’ it is sad that this is the case. One thing which is common knowledge about Kenya is that any problem can be readily reduced into an ODM-PNU debate. It is the other community against the other. Museveni knows it well that Kenya may not after all address the fundamentals but instead use it as a 2012 variable.
It is no wonder that the northern corridor formerly the Northern Frontier District-North Eastern Province has been eyed by insurgents from the war torn Somalia. They too must have been following the Kenyan politics very keenly and seem to have established a point to infiltrate the Northern Border.
The current instability in the Horn of Africa portends a danger to Kenya. Given a president who employs a laid back approach and seems to have left everything for the wind, there is need to worry. Other disturbing developments such as sale of public land to unscrupulous business persons add credence to an argument for worry by the Kenyan citizenry.
Finally the rise of militia groups and high profile executions and assassination almost turning the country into a KGB Russia is another cause for a panic. The Ku Klax Clan execution style by Mungiki and a police force suspect of complacency and complicity is clearly suggestive of an ailing presidency devoid of responsibility and suspect of cover up.
To think of a political federation from a pessimist’s perspective therefore is justified given a leadership out to address selfish ambitions and at the cost of an expectant public. Perhaps other case studies such as Nigeria Vs Cameroon over the Bakassi Peninsula or Croatia Vs Slovenia over Bay of Piran can provide a sense of thought over Migingo Island and more lessons to Ugandan president on how not to be undiplomatic over such issues. The Migingo Island impasse also provides a healthy forum to the East African countries to interrogate the challenges and chart a safe route towards a political federation without which they shall be haunted by the cancer which dissipated the former East African Cooperation in 1977.

Indeed it was extraordinary

The proverbial Sword of Damocles hang precariously in the House for almost a week before it suddenly fell.
The House and country at large seem to have been held at ransom and the suspense on the air was reminiscent of the tick tack tock clock of the Apocalypse.
When he took to the chamber, the House Speaker Kenneth Marende, with authority and sage probably drawn from his ancestors of Wanga read and explained the content, letter and spirit of the law to the surprise, chagrin and shock of Honourable Members of parliament, who, in the whole week had reduced the House Business into the endless debate of who came first between the egg and the chicken.
Hook, line and sinker
The past one week had seen bitter words exchanged between members of the coalition even others calling for a snap election though the mechanism for handling the same is non existent. The country was treated to a replay of the Day of Long Knives premiering in the House early last year.
To diffuse this tension and return the House and by large extension the country, the Speaker acted in a manner least expected by both sides of the divide and decided to take over the leadership of the House Business Committee and refer the feuding parties back to the drawing table to consult of who would finally occupy that seat.
Even the man who had been appointed by the president to head the HBC found himself in unfamiliar waters when the letter from his boss to the speaker was trashed and rendered null.
Good Neighbourliness
Once again Tanzania, which has been Kenya's good neighbour and brother especially in tough times came to the rescue of the country. The Speaker borrowed strongly from the Tanzanian Constitution regarding the leadership of the House and it is from these clauses that the man from Emuhaya(Western Kenya) found more strength and authority to apportion himself power and with the will and stamina of a man in a catch twenty two situation he delivered his verdict with finally which left the whole House and Country by extension in awe and amazement.
Solomon the Sage.
It will be recalled that on Thursday last week when the stalemate broke officially, a man of cloth in the House (Rev.Mutava Musyimi-Gachoka MP) went divine and sold an idea to the Speaker and the House at large. His Kingdom experience reminded him of the sagacious leader of the olden day Israel-Solomon who decided to cut a kid fought for by two women into two.
With the humility of a man in the pulpit over the years and leader of church council in the country, the disturbed Rev. called on the Speaker to make reference to this story and save the country from degenerating into apathy, a situation still fresh in the minds of the citizenry.
Indeed the Speaker did not fail this man of cloth who, during his day in the helm of the church council and many at times in the pulpit had made tough and bitter decisions on some issues.
Reformed House
Perhaps the most interesting bit of yesterday's development was the reaction after the Speaker's ruling. Yes, it was a sigh of relief to many and to others, a raw deal. Almost all those who stood to contribute to the immediate motion congratulated the Speaker for his decision. However, hangovers lingered in the heads of others. They felt that the Speaker's decision should be contested and real definition of government and appointing authority be revisited.
What remains to be seen is the next course of action for the disintegrated coalition government on choosing the Leader of Government Business.

Parliamentary Impasse a set back to peace and stability in Kenya

Barely three days after the state opening of parliament in Kenya, the ugly monster of the grand coaltion government seems to be poking its head into the August House. The coalition government has been accussed by all and sundry for failing to deliver to the satisfaction of the citizenry given the promises made immediately after signing the peace accord following the ethnic convulsions which erupted after the bungled elections in December 2007.
The wrangling-which now seems to be a common feature of the coalition is extending to the House as both parties in the coalition jozzle for parliamentary suppremacy. This development portends a danger to the country's stability given the suspicions still existing among the various ethnic communities in Kenya. Hopes of Vision 2030 seem to be on the hanging line as priorities of building the nation seem to have been misplaced.